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Crowds depart an evening dance recital at Carco Theatre in October last year. Seven weeks later the theater flooded from a storm the city said was unlikely to reach a flood stage.
Renton’s 300-seat Carco Theatre was flooded in December, after Renton leaders initially downplayed the NOAA forecast that predicted we could see the worst flooding ever. Nearly a year after the flooding of Carco, nothing has been done to reopen the theater. A local non-profit that leased space from Renton and helped community groups prepare programs for public access TV, Puget Sound Access Television, has also been displaced by the flooding.
Steppin Together Dancers, who take part in dance classes with Renton Community Center, perform in Carco theater the year before it flooded.
My wife and I, along with our daughter and daughter-in-law, enjoying the comfortable seating in Carco Theater for a dance recital.
This official forecast from December 9 shows a risk of major flooding and potential all-time high river levels. (This is the forecast I included in my blog posts, with links to the national weather service.)
Last December 9th, NOAA was forecasting that the Cedar River could experience major flooding, and could crest at higher levels than ever before. I urgently shared the worrisome prediction in my blog, and on social media community pages that have thousands of readers. My wife Cathy wanted to know whether any city event schedules might be impacted, and she was surprised that there was no mention of potential flooding anywhere on the City’s website or social media pages. The Mayor’s press release from a few days before was featured prominently on the website, and it was titled “Renton, Ready to Play,” about the World Cup coming to Seattle and progress on Legacy Square. There was nothing about potential flooding. This was followed by a social media blitz about legacy square on December 10.
So Cathy sent an email to Mayor Pavone asking that the city webpages be updated with flood information, including news about potential cancellations that might occur. During the next 24 hours the city began using social media channels to discuss the river rise, but to my surprise they downplayed the risk of flooding.
The City’s first post on the topic occurred after Cathy’s email to the Mayor, but it downplayed the flood risk by citing an ensemble forecast (a group of possibilities) that showed a range of possible flood levels, some of which were less severe. “The most likely peak range (15 to 15.75 feet) will not reach major flood levels” the city’s Facebook post said.
Renton residents questioned the City of Renton about why they were saying the river would likely peak at 15.5 feet, while NOAA said 17.5 feet. And the city cited the ensemble forecast, saying the depth “most likely won’t exceed 15.75 feet.”
A few days later the river crested higher than ever before, over 18 feet.
A core principle of emergency management and engineering is that you “prepare for the worst (and hope for the best).” You don’t prepare for the “most likely” scenario. On any given day most buildings won’t catch fire, but we still make sure everyone knows there is a fire risk, and we still ensure fire protection systems are active. When a forecast identifies a significant possibility of record flooding, the message should not be “but that is not the most likely.”
Unfortunately, Renton’s beautiful 300-seat Carco Theater and Event Center was a victim of this wishful thinking. When the river crested at peak levels, it only met with minimal sandbags placed unfortunately in the wrong places. Instead of asking volunteers to come and sandbag to help protect this critical venue, Public Works leadership and the Mayor’s office dismissed the risk and never even informed the public that Carco was flooding. With the unduly-optimistic executive planning, exhausted City workers were left scrambling and improvising when the theater began to flood.
The last-minute failed sand-bag effort was still in place last April when I took this picture. If engineering caution and foresight had been used, a robust sandbag wall would have been constructed along the crest of the berm between Cedar River and Carco theater. Instead, sandbags appear to have been placed near the location where the water began pouring into the theater, including at the bottom of the ramp– essentially trying to stop a waterfall by placing sandbags at the bottom of it.
Carco Theater had incurred minor flooding in previous flood events, but pumps and well-placed sandbags had always been deployed to minimize impacts, and any damage was quickly repaired. The theater has weathered its scenic location near the Cedar River for 40 years, and should have been able to continue uninterrupted operation for decades more. Now, it’s been closed for nearly a year, and shows no signs of reopening any time soon.
And there has been no meaningful action taken by the Mayor, Council, or Public Works leadership to prioritize getting the important venue back into operation. Millions of dollars have been spent building an outdoor stage and television at Legacy Square, and hundreds of thousands of dollars more were spent arranging watch-parties for televised sporting events on the new television. But Carco Theater, which has hosted live dances, plays, and other performances by our own residents for decades, has been left abandoned and unfunded. Did Council decide that watching TV sporting events is more important than watching our children dance?
Dance groups had to work-around Carco’s closure this past summer, but the stage was smaller, there were fewer seats, and the room was hot.
In the last year my family has had to go as far away as Seattle and Maple Valley to see family members perform in shows that normally would have taken place in Carco Theater. Some of these shows were dance classes offered by Renton Parks and Recreation– using venues in other cities because ours is ruined and not being repaired.
This past summer, families with children in Renton Parks classes sat in folding chairs or stood in crowds in the back of a room at the community center. The performing children compressed their dance numbers onto a too-small, foot-high portable stage to perform dances that in prior years would have been performed on the big stage under the spotlights at Carco Theater.
Distressingly, virtually nothing has been done to remediate the flood damage.
For ten months, the only information signs on Carco Theater have read “All Events Cancelled this weekend due to power outage.” (Picture taken yesterday)
This photo, taken yesterday (October 10, 2025) through a window of the Theater, shows the somewhat-disheveled condition of the lobby. This is nearly identical to the photo below, taken six months ago, demonstrating there has been no activity to fix the theater.
This is the same view as above, taken last April. No one has ever tried to tidy, vacuum or even remove the aging beverages from the sofa.
Here is another view of the lobby, taken yesterday. This looks identical to the way it looked six months ago, per the photo below.
The lobby of Carco theater as it appeared through the window last April
This photo taken yesterday shows that there is no power service to Carco Theater, increasing the risk of mold from high humidity, and water pipes and fixtures breaking from freezing.
Spider webs around the back door (which served the former Puget Sound Access) suggest no work crews are going in and out. Mud on the outside of the doorframe and the threshold appears to have remained since the December flood.
Mud from the flooding last winter has still not been washed off
The only indication of any work anywhere around the building is that someone appears to have dug a hole at some time. The torn caution tape looks like it was a while ago.
From the City’s website; the only formal “press-release” from before the flood was “Renton, Ready to Play” about legacy square on December 5.
Carco Theatre is also an important venue for public meetings and forums, like this minimum wage debate that was held on the front of the stage in front of the curtain.
For reference, back in December I wrote more about Renton flooding in this follow-up blog post, including photos of high water in downtown Renton. (I did not get photos of the flooding at Carco Theatre.)
Randy Corman
Ben Johnson
Marcie Palmer
Maggie
